How much would global emissions decrease if the world went plant-based?
Summary
Multiple peer-reviewed studies estimate that a global shift to plant-based diets could reduce food-related greenhouse gas emissions by 49-70%. Clark et al. (2020) found that food system emissions alone, if unchanged, could make it impossible to limit warming to 1.5°C.
Supported by 2 cited sources
Key Points
- 1Several major studies have modeled what would happen to global emissions if humanity transitioned toward plant-based diets, and the findings consistently point to very large reductions.
- 2The authors identified plant-rich diets as one of five key strategies for bringing food emissions under control.
- 3The largest reductions came from fully vegan scenarios.
- 4That freed land represents a massive opportunity for carbon sequestration through ecosystem restoration — reforestation and rewilding — which would amplify the climate benefit well beyond the direct emissions reduction.
Evidence Summary
Clark et al. (2020), published in Science (DOI: 10.1126/science.aba7357), examined cumulative emissions from the global food system and found that even if all fossil fuel emissions were eliminated immediately, food system emissions alone — on their current trajectory — would make it impossible to limit warming to 1.5°C and would threaten the 2°C target by century's end.
Springmann et al. (2016), published in PNAS (DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1523119113), modeled global dietary transitions and found that moving toward plant-based diets could reduce food-related greenhouse gas emissions by 29-70%, depending on the degree of animal product reduction.
Poore & Nemecek (2018), published in Science, calculated that a global shift away from animal products would reduce food's greenhouse gas emissions by approximately 49%, while freeing 76% of current agricultural land (3.1 billion hectares).
Supporting Evidence
Based on Poore & Nemecek (2018) meta-analysis of 38,700 farms and Springmann et al. (2018) global modeling.
The Bottom Line
Taken together, these studies demonstrate that dietary change is not a marginal climate strategy — it is among the most impactful interventions available. As Poore & Nemecek noted, dietary change "delivers environmental benefits on a scale not achievable by producers" through efficiency improvements alone.
Sources & Evidence
2 sources cited across 1 claim
Plant-based shift would free 3.1 billion hectares
Meta-Analysis